North Korean Crisis

The risks of a military conflict with North Korea is growing day by day. How might the US react and how is your organization taking steps to avoid the worst fallouts from a possible war? Read on to get a comprehensive situation report from our robot, Athena, and her analysis of Donald Trump’s possible options.
What is changing?
Implications

Sentiment analysis
After a period of negative bluff and bluster, sentiment took a decided turn for the worse in August as both sides escalated the crisis and pundits began laying out possible future, and mostly bleak, scenarios. We are now seeing the tensions beginning the shift of risky assets to safe havens in September. Have you begun considering the potential impacts on your organization and decided on worst-case mitigating actions?

Trend
North Korea was already on the threat radar before Donald Trump took power. Indeed, President Obama warned him that this was the most pressing issue in his in-basket. The radar blips have been getting stronger ever since.


Metrics
Athena thinks the tipping point for this crisis will be in 2018, but it could come far sooner than that with one major misstep from either side. She calculates a 26% chance that a war will ensue next year. Depending on the breadth of a crisis the world could lose billions in future economic benefits.



Mind map
The mood music in the mind map makes for very concerned reading. All the talk is of power struggles, conflict, tit-for-tat escalations and opposing leadership views that point to war and not diplomatic efforts to solve the crisis.

Geomap
The Geomap shows that a war begun between the US and North Korea will have far-reaching effects on China, India, Pakistan, Russia and the Middle East. Global trade could be seriously impacted to the point of producing a global recession and other countries like Iran could be encouraged to emulate North Korea’s policy.

Possible US Options
These options were auto generated by our robot using the forecasts above:

The US now appears to be boxed in to either accepting NK as a nuclear power and offering carrots and sticks in return for Kim agreeing not to threaten any other country in any way. Or, following through on its threats to denuclearise NK by force. Either alternative is fraught with future threats. One side or the other, will have to blink or come up with out-of-the-box thinking to avoid the latter, as Kennedy did with the Bay of Pigs incident in 1963.

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