Future Trade

The threat of protectionism and economic fragmentation hangs over global trade and therefore impacts on your organization. Read on to discover what our robot, Athena, has discovered about the likely future of trade and respond accordingly.
What is changing?
  • trade
    • Washington teams from the UK and the United States will begin talks that both sides hope will end up in a trade deal between the two countries after Britain leaves the European Union.
    • Leaving the EU will change patterns of food production, trade and consumption.
    • Stewart Room argues the UK will not be able to escape the influence of the ECJ if it wants to keep trade with Europe alive.
    • The British Retail Consortium and its members fully support the eradication of trade of illegally harvested timber and hopes the European Timber Regulation will help strengthen retailers’ efforts to source sustainably sourced timber.
    • 65 countries in Africa, Asia, and Europe will be linked by land and by sea for trade and investment.
    • The US could cut off trade with countries which continued to trade with North Korea in violation of UN resolutions.
    • Mexico’s government is working to achieve a constructive negotiation process that will allow trade and investment flows to increase and consolidates cooperation and economic integration to strengthen North American competitiveness.
    • Japan and Europe’s negotiations will mean they are in an unrivaled position to shape the future of trade.
    • Gold will probably trade in a range of $1,200 to $1,300 as the metal tracks U.S. real interest rates.
    • In the next 34 years, the concentrated global trade among a few key players will be replaced by many players driven by globalization with emerging markets playing key role through regional trade.
    • Japan will allow duty-free shipments of processed pork and an almost duty-free tariff trade for fresh meat.
    • Eurozone firms could be expected to lose market share to U.S. firms if Brussels adopts a belligerent attitude on UK / EU trade.
    • The growth in agriculture and fish trade is projected to slow to about half the previous decade’s growth rate, and average less than 2percent per year in volume terms for most commodities.
    • The U.S. will be represented by a president who embraces protectionism, forcing Germany and China into an informal alliance pushing the merits of free trade and action against climate change.
    • Free trade will drive development in Africa.
    • The UK will remain committed to the values of free and open trade.
    • Ma’s two-day visit to East Africa will be focused on raising awareness for the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and encouraging youth and small businesses in Africa to participate in global trade.
    • UNCTAD is working with Mr. Ma to explore opportunities with African businesses to participate in global trade.
    • Global trade in 2018 is projected to be the second highest on record.
    • The threat of protectionism and economic fragmentation hangs over global trade.
    • The larger gathering of the G-20 leading economies will focus on high-profile issues like climate change, global trade, North Korea, Syria and Ukraine.
    • Singapore’s short-term economic outlook will be determined by the future path of global trade.
    • The momentum in global trade could be dampened if developed countries adopt a protectionist stance.
    • Global rice trade for 2018 is projected at 43.4 million tons.
    • Foreign investors continue to see investment opportunities in Northern Ireland as new figures published today by the Department for International Trade showed the country attracted 34 inward investment projects in 2016-17.
    • The Department for International Trade will join with 17 of the UK’s leading firms from the infrastructure industry in a new partnership to help UK companies secure major international contracts.
    • Japan and the European Union agreed on an outline for a massive trade deal on Thursday that will rival the size of NAFTA.
    • India is at risk of losing the Nepalese transit trade to China.
    • U.S. cars could see the benefits of a renegotiated trade deal at a time when diesel-powered cars offered by Volkswagen’s are losing appeal following cheating on emissions tests.
    • A complementary maritime “road” will extend from the eastern coastal regions of China through Southeast Asia into the Indian Ocean, the Middle East, and East Africa and include upgraded port and harbor facilities capable of supporting higher levels of seaborne trade.
    • The White House decision to scrap the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and revise the North American Free Trade Agreement could be exploited by Brussels.
    • UK trade with the EU could fall by as much as 60% due to increases in tariff and non-tariff barriers under WTO rules.
    • Tariffs and quotas would save jobs in the U.S. steel and aluminum industries from near-term threats and help domestic producers recover from unfair trade.
    • The resulting bonanza of infrastructure investment will boost the national objective of spurring domestic consumption to lessen China’s reliance on volatile overseas trade.
    • Weaker global trade could hamper Singapore’s plans of both achieving growth through export-oriented future growth clusters as well as fostering deeper international connections.
    • Britain could be forced to accept chlorine-washed chickens as part of its post-Brexit trade deal with the US.
    • LNG trade is forecast to grow strongly in 2017.
  • agreement
    • Despite Seoul’s vital role in addressing the North Korean nuclear crisis the president has threatened to terminate the American bilateral trade agreement with South Korea and tried to renege on the U.S. commitment to pay for the THAAD anti-missile defense system.
    • A study has determined that changes to (or a departure from) the North American Free-Trade Agreement could cost U.S. automotive manufacturing operations as much as $27 billion.
    • Leaders are expected to announce a political agreement on the EU-Japan free trade agreement and the EU-Japan strategic partnership agreement.
    • The UK will have no settled free trade agreements with any major country until at least 2024.
    • Britain will have no settled free trade agreements with any major country until at least 2024.
    • Trade agreements and related measures could improve defense industrial ties with key U.S. partners and discourage them from buying Chinese or Russian weapons.
    • Provisions on wholesale roaming caps could be included in a UK-EU free trade agreement.
  • deficit
    • Pakistan’s trade deficit in FY17 is expected to surpass $30 billion.
    • Rising wages in emerging markets are going to reduce the U.S. trade deficit in manufactures at current levels of the dollar.
    • The UK’s long-running trade deficit could be worsened as European supply chains make plans to withdraw to the continent.
  • tariff
    • Tariffs and quotas would save jobs in the U.S. steel and aluminum industries from near-term threats and help domestic producers recover from unfair trade.
    • UK trade with the EU could fall by as much as 60% due to increases in tariff and non-tariff barriers under WTO rules.
    • G20 leaders are particularly concerned about a trade war brewing over steel and indications the U.S. will impose tariffs on steel to counter allegations of dumping by China.
    • The prospect of post-Brexit trade tariffs pose a “major risk” to the UK’s £28bn food and drink sector.
    • WTO tariffs could have a significant impact on both UK consumers and retailers alike.
  • talk
    • Today in Washington teams from the UK and the United States will begin talks that both sides hope will end up in a trade deal between the two countries after Britain leaves the European Union.
    • Liberalising US poultry imports is expected to be a key feature of US-UK trade talks.
  • trade expert
    • Trade experts have argued that shrinking the yawning U.S. trade deficit will not be achieved by revising trade deals but rather by boosting U.S. savings.
  • trade finance
    • By 2020, 20 percent of trade finance globally will incorporate blockchain / distributed ledger technology.
  • global trade war
    • Risks to the markets include a policy error by the Federal Reserve, a global trade war, an economic slowdown in China and a military engagement.
  • growth
    • Powell speculated that the cryptocurrency markets will likely see growth of 10x to 100x in coming years.
    • The growth in global consumption of processed dairy products is expected to slow down in the next decade to 1.7% annually.
    • There are risks to growth and inflation coming from potential trade barriers, geopolitical events and a U.S. economy that is facing slower growth due to the uncertainty coming from the Trump administration.
    • The growth in agriculture and fish trade is projected to slow to about half the previous decade’s growth rate, and average less than 2percent per year in volume terms for most commodities.
    • Weaker global trade could hamper Singapore’s plans of both achieving growth through export-oriented future growth clusters as well as fostering deeper international connections.
    • Global growth will be increasingly driven by innovation and investment in skills.
    • Global economic growth is expected to reach around 3 1/2 per cent in 2017.
    • The IMF has projected the non-oil growth to rise to 3.3 per cent in 2017 from 2.7 per cent in 2016.
  • trade war brewing
    • G20 leaders are particularly concerned about a trade war brewing over steel and indications the U.S. will impose tariffs on steel to counter allegations of dumping by China.
Implications

Topic map
We recommend you further explore the topics forecasts below at Shaping Tomorrow to gain further foresight on how trade may be impacted in the future particularly in how regulations and  policy changeswill impact on  future economic growth.

Heat map
Biggest trade opportunities and risks are in Canada, Australia, the UK and South-east Asia. Lowest trade opportunities and risks are in the US, the Baltics, South America, Russia, the Middle East, India and Africa.

Athena: Our robot, has determined which forecasts should be included in this Trend Alert. She found 5,437 forecasts in seconds to allow us to publish this summary in less than thirty minutes. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish.

Athena does show duplicates to aid your understanding of themes as well as contradictory forecasts. She may also show near-duplicates. You can speed read past the duplicates and near-duplicates if you wish, though the latter may show additional information. You can use the contradictory, and likely uncertain forecasts she finds to imagine different scenarios. The future is unpredictable but we can examine the possibilities and choose our preferable future from the choices she presents.

Keep up to date: You can stay bang up to date on this topic or choose from our many automatic reports to determine what’s next in seconds.

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