Health Futures

Pressures from potential pandemics, the environment we live in, ageing populations and funding threats take centre stage in this week’s Trend Alert. Read on to discover where the opportunities lie in the future, consider how these could affect you and your organization and act accordingly.

What is changing?

Care

  • Unless more resources are devoted to taking care of older adults, countries will face massive financial and societal challenges in the years ahead.
  • The process of legislation, especially health care, will drive the Trump-House relationship more than allegations about Russia.
  • Aging populations will transform everything from health care to real estate, while millennial-dominated workforces will reinvent the workplace.
  • Digital disruption in health care will only accelerate in the years ahead.
  • NHS plans to deliver more health care at or closer to home will be more difficult to achieve if older people’s homes are unsuitable.
  • According the US department of Health and Human Services about 70 percent of people 65 and over will need some form of Long Term Care during their lives.
  • A hospital using AI will improve patient care and allow doctors to spend more time with patients instead of toiling over mindless data entry tasks.
  • The NHS and social care will not be able to move forward to deliver sustained efficiency improvements and transform services without an effective workforce strategy.

Risk

  • Millions in Syria are at risk of developing mental health disorders.
  • The rising cost of litigation against the NHS contributes to pressure on health service funding and risks diverting funds away from frontline care.
  • The $200 billion global auto insurance market is at high risk due to disruptive trends.
  • Chemical used in the best-selling Roundup herbicide is cleared for public use following an EU licensing battle due to potential health risks.
  • High ash content of coal from planned Carmichael coalmine poses serious health risks for communities in India.
  • The rapidly increasing volumes of data that will be produced over the coming decades offer profound research opportunities alongside significant risks.

Health

  • According the US department of Health and Human Services about 70 percent of people 65 and over will need some form of Long Term Care during their lives.
  • Malaria remains a leading cause of death and threat to health in many regions and countries across the Global South.
  • In the next 25 years many of the challenges and opportunities currently associated with the wider social, political, economic and cultural drivers of health will continue.
  • Data insights that predict future health and wellbeing needs as well as disease progression are allowing accountable care organisations in the United States to reduce costs.
  • IBM Watson Health working with Medtronics has developed a cognitive model that predicts with high degree of accuracy blood glucose levels two to three hours in advance.
  • Approximately 25% of Australia will be over the age of 65 giving increased health and pension costs.
  • Mental health and morale could have a critical bearing on how societies cope with climate change and other 21st century global threats.
  • Funding for college work-study programs would be cut in half, public-service loan forgiveness would end and hundreds of millions of dollars that public schools could use for mental health, advanced coursework and other services would vanish under a Trump administration plan to cut $10.6 billion.

System

  • America’s healthcare system will remain in perpetual crisis.
  • Worldwide spending on cognitive computing systems will reach $31.3 billion by 2019.
  • Australia’s mortality trends while a resounding achievement deliver a double whammy to the health system-there will be more older Australians than was anticipated and each will make greater demands on the health system.
  • A health system seeing 1,000 new patients through a telehealth platform could realize $300,000 to $1.2 million in revenue.
  • Evolution of health insurance system in Europe is expected to contribute considerably to the potential and attractiveness of the Europe consumer oxygen equipment market.
  • GE are currently looking to the future of T-Cell therapy technologies to develop harmonised partnerships that will facilitate and allow their customers to implement fully automated and integrated systems.
  • Simply pumping more money into the NHS will not solve the fundamental problem that it struggles to work as a lean system and adapt to meet changing needs.
  • Major changes in the U.S. healthcare system and practice environment will require profound changes in the education of nurses.
  • Data insights that predict future health and wellbeing needs as well as disease progression are allowing accountable care organisations in the United States to reduce costs.

Population

  • Aging populations will transform everything from health care to real estate, while millennial-dominated workforces will reinvent the workplace.
  • The UK today has an ethical imperative to answer the challenges such as the healthcare costs of an ageing population that will mean the NHS of today is no longer affordable tomorrow.
  • Over the coming half-century, the Australian population must anticipate some major environmental surprises and “shocks”.
  • Population aging continues to accelerate across Asia and the Pacific and estimates that the share of the region’s population aged 60 or older will rise from around 12.4 percent (or 550 million people) in 2016 to more than 25 percent (or 1.3 billion people) by 2050.
  • Over the coming decades, the UK population will face a wide range of complex health challenges and opportunities.
  • The World Health Organisation projects India’s population will reach 1.7bn by 2050 and begin to decline.

Year

  • Number of strokes in UK predicted to rise by 44% in next 20 years.
  • In 1960 the median age for men and women in the U.S. was 29.5 and in the next 12 years will exceed 40.
  • In the next 25 years many of the challenges and opportunities currently associated with the wider social, political, economic and cultural drivers of health will continue.
  • Digital disruption in health care will only accelerate in the years ahead.
  • Analytics investment tied to population health management will be a priority over the next five years.
  • By 2040, 183,600 people will die prematurely each year due to diesel vehicle NOx emissions unless governments act.
  • The number of new cancer patients in Europe alone will increase during the next two decades, from 3.6 to 4.3 million, amounting to 716,000 additional cases each year.
  • Cutting smoking rates could provide the NHS an extra £67million a year.
  • Medicare and Medicaid programs could save as much as $1.2 billion over 10 years, even after the costs of providing more tele stroke evaluations and more tPA treatments are factored in.
  • Unless more resources are devoted to taking care of older adults, countries will face massive financial and societal challenges in the years ahead.
  • The global market of mHealth will exponentially grow and it becomes 59.15 billion USD by the year 2020.
  • The rising demand from healthcare sector and other end users will keep the demand for cognitive computing high in the coming years.
  • Cloud-based services are expected to have an even greater impact on the healthcare industry in the coming years as more and more workflow processes being transferred to the cloud.

Threat

  • Malaria remains a leading cause of death and threat to health in many regions and countries across the Global South.
  • The threat of Ebola virus has resurfaced in Congo Democratic Republic.
  • Experts claim that hackers could shut down banks and cut off power and water supplies in the biggest threat to civilisation since the Second World War.
  • Mental health and morale could have a critical bearing on how societies cope with climate change and other 21st century global threats.
  • Stagnating or declining funding for global health Initiatives and lack of domestic resources threaten the continued progress against health threats despite the availability of more cost – effective treatments.
  • The World Health Organization has identified MERS as an urgent threat with no vaccine or treatment in sight.

Market

  • Wearable medical devices are expected to grow from a global market of $3.3 billion in 2015 to $7.8 billion by 2020.
  • About 55 per cent of Australians own one and the global market for personable wearable devices is expected to reach US$150-billion by 2026.
  • The global market of mHealth will exponentially grow and it becomes 59.15 billion USD by the year 2020.
  • Technological advancements such as better encapsulation has provided ample opportunities to the growth of the global omega ingredients market.

Healthcare

  • Unobtrusive sensing could offer more insight into the natural world and change the exploration of healthcare, energy, computing and other fields.
  • More than 60 percent of manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, energy and agro-farming corporations could have a CRO by 2025.
  • Just 1% efficiency gains could equate to more than $150 billion dollars saved annually for industries like energy, transportation, and healthcare.
  • The value of the IoT in healthcare will top $163 billion by 2020.

Worker

  • An additional 1.1 million direct care workers will be needed by 2024 in the US.
  • The global demand for health workers will double by 2030.

UK

  • Number of strokes in UK predicted to rise by 44% in next 20 years.
  • On the current rate of increase it will take until 2025 to half the disability employment gap for people with long term depression and anxiety in the UK and until 2019 for disabled people with mental illness and phobias.
  • UK spending on long-term care will need to increase considerably by 2025.
  • The UK today has an ethical imperative to answer the challenges such as the healthcare costs of an ageing population that will mean the NHS of today is no longer affordable tomorrow.
  • Long-term demographic trends and broad political will for healthcare reform continue to support the outlook for primary care property in both the UK and Ireland.

Funding

  • Funding for college work-study programs would be cut in half, public-service loan forgiveness would end and hundreds of millions of dollars that public schools could use for mental health, advanced coursework and other services would vanish under a Trump administration plan to cut $10.6 billion.
  • Deep cuts in federal Medicaid funding will squeeze state budgets and jeopardize other services for women and their families.
  • By 2020, Illinois could lose a total of $40 billion in funding for health care for the poor.
  • The rising cost of litigation against the NHS contributes to pressure on health service funding and risks diverting funds away from frontline care.
  • Stagnating or declining funding for global health Initiatives and lack of domestic resources threaten the continued progress against health threats despite the availability of more cost – effective treatments.

Management

  • Patient relationship management could become one of the pillars of the NHS.
  • Analytics investment tied to population health management will be a priority over the next five years.

Implications

Athena’s forecast
Start year: 2017
Likely Tipping point: 2037
Likely End year: 2075
Likely Impact $: Billions
Likelihood: 65%
Regions affected: The World
Most affected sectors: Healthcare. Food & agriculture, Support services, Construction, Manufacturing, Government, Pharmaceuticals, IT, Science, Financial services
Last updated 30 May 2017

Questions

Sentiment Analysis

The last couple of months have seen an upturn in sentiment due to excitement about digital health opportunities. But, most are likely to be a long time coming due to regulatory restrictions and inertia unless increasing crises force governments to take rapid actions.

Topic map
The map shows the increasing influence of AI on healthcare where it had none until recently, as pressures from potential pandemics, aging populations and funding threats take centre stage.  We recommend you further explore these topics forecasts at Shaping Tomorrow to gain further foresight on how healthcare maybe impacted in the future.

Heat map
North America, Brazil, the UK, Saudi Arabia, India and China have the biggest opportunities and risks with their healthcare going forward.

 

Athena: Our robot, has determined which forecasts should be included in this Trend Alert. She found 9,248 forecasts in seconds to allow us to publish this summary in less than thirty minutes. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish.

Athena does show duplicates to aid your understanding of particular themes as well as contradictory forecasts. She may also show near-duplicates. You can speed read past the duplicates and near-duplicates if you wish, though the latter may show additional information. You can use the contradictory, and likely uncertain forecasts she finds to imagine different scenarios. The future is unpredictable but we can examine the possibilities and choose our preferable future from the choices she presents.

Keep up to date: You can stay bang up to date on this topic or choose from our many automatic reports to determine what’s next in seconds.

Social changes | Sector prospects | Risks & opportunities | Year-by year | G20 watch | Key Organizations

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