2015 Global Growth Trends

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To kick off the year our robot has created the summary list below of the key, global growth predictions made by the world’s professional analysts over the past few months. They all point to a gradual improvement in the world economy and confirm our own, ongoing, private statistical trend analysis available to our clients, see an overview in the graph to the right.
What is changing?

Economy

  • Analysts predict a gradual acceleration in the global economy next year.
  • Exports are projected to strengthen in 2015 as demand improves from the major industrial economies.
  • Fiscal policy is expected to be more supportive of economic growth in 2015.
  • World GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to the long-term average rate of 3.2% annual growth in 2015.
  • Drivers of economic growth will be harder to find in 2015.
  • The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, will begin raisinginterest rates in 2015.
  • Russia‘s is entering a “full blown economic crisis” and will enter recession this year.
  • China‘s growth is predicted to fall from 7.7 percent in 2014 to 6.8 percent in 2015.
  • China will be the focus of many, many boardroom discussions around the world this year.
  • Corporate consolidation, industrial restructuring, and reduced investments in a number of sectors such as energy and minerals will drag on growth in most resource-intensive countries next year.

Work

  • Employment rates across emerging and developing economies will return to “pre-crisis” levels in 2015.
  • 1.3 billion people will work remotely using mobile technology in 2015.
  • Demand for data scientists will snowball in the coming year.
  • Analysts predict the information security sector will grow into a US$125 billion industry in 2015.
  • 60% of new jobs being created will require skills that only 20% of the population actually has.
  • The future of work will unfold in the Cloud.

Consumption

  • Online sales are predicted to grow to reach £43 billion in 2015.
  • Gartner predicts sales of smart clothing will exceed 10 million in 2015.
  • Nearly two-thirds of consumers plan to buy an in-home device in the next five years and wearable technology ownership will double by 2015-increasing from 7 percent in 2014 to 14 percent by 2015.
  • Sales of 3D printing and services will hit $3.7 billion worldwide.
  • Online banking is expected to reach 894 million people in 2015.
  • M-payments are projected to grow at 60.8 percent in 2015.
  • Africa smartphone adoption will continue to be a high growth area for 2015.
  • Cloud computing and tablet computing are expected to be increasingly adopted by schools in one year’s time or less to make use of services such as Google Apps for Education, Skype, andDropbox

Marketing

  • Digital marketing will converge with digital selling in a meaningful way.
  • Brands will begin to combine TV and online metrics in 2015.
  • TV consumption will change in 2015 as consumers increasingly watch on multiple devices and in various locations instead of watching the family television.
  • In 2015 there will be important opportunities for brands that can keep pace with the lifestyle habits of the modern consumer.
  • Mobile ads are also expected to grow by a smashing 48% in 2015.
  • Big data will become the new normal between 2015 and 2017.
  • A big trend in 2015 will be the use of predictive data to drive demand and understand the marketplace in a more timely manner.
  • The use of online video for both sales and service will increase significantly in 2015

Demographics

  • Almost 200,000 people are projected to be added to the world’scities every day.

Technology

  • There will be one trillion connected devices in 2015.
  • Consumers will be surrounded by an unprecedented number ofdevices with the ability to communicate directly with one another.
  • Overall spending on technology and telecommunications will rise by a modest 3.8 percent in 2015 to $3.8 trillion.
  • EU forecasts the global market for ‘key enabling technologies’ will grow 54% to more than €1trn by 2015.
  • 60% of enterprises will discover a breach in 2015 but only 21% of enterprises report that improving incident response is a critical priority. There will be large increases in security budgets and unexpected attacks.

Resources

  • Food prices are forecast to drop by 1% in 2015.
  • Falling gasoline and fuel oil prices could shave about 0.4 percentage points from headline inflation in 2015.
  • The oil price will be around $80 a barrel in 2015.
  • Non-OECD oil demand is expected to exceed that of the OECD for the first time.
Implications

Planners | Innovators | Risk managers | Marketers |Consultants| Change agents | Researchers | Portfolio managers |Security advisers | Educators | HR managers

A deep understanding of how these changes will affect you, your competitors and stakeholders is a pre-requisite for good strategy building, agility and resilience building today and ultimate success.

Try answering our fast, ‘Fit for the future‘ global survey and see if you have what it takes to be successful in the next five years and where your opportunities to quickly improve are.

Learn more
To find the sources and more resources on Shaping Tomorrow about the future of growth some of which were used in this Trend Alert. View Growth report.

Also, click here to find out how Shaping Tomorrow can help your organization rapidly assess and respond to these and other key issues affecting your business.

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